UF:
Florida population growth slows but still remains high
GAINESVILLE, Fla. – Nov. 8, 2007 – According
to the University of Florida (UF), Florida’s population growth
slowed considerably last year as the housing boom went bust, but it
remained relatively strong and likely will stay that way for the
next few years.
“There have been a number of news articles lately focusing on the
idea that population growth has fallen off the table top in Florida
and practically come to a standstill, and that simply isn’t true,”
says Stan Smith, director of the UF’s Bureau of Economic and
Business Research, who led the research. “Florida has a strong
economy and adds jobs every year. That is a major factor in last
year still being a big year for population growth, even though it
was less than in the previous three years.”
The estimates released this week show the Sunshine State’s
population grew by 331,000 between 2006 and 2007, compared with
431,000 between 2005 and 2006; 402,000 between 2004 and 2005; and
448,000 between 2003 and 2004, Smith said. Florida’s total
population was estimated at 18,680,367 as of April 1, 2007.
Based on recent trends, Smith said he expects Florida to add about
300,000 residents a year during the next two to three years unless
there is a recession.
“The housing boom certainly contributed to Florida’s growth in those
earlier years, and the housing bust contributed to the slowdown this
last year,” he says. “When economic conditions are tough, it’s much
harder for people to sell their homes in New York, Ohio, Michigan or
some other state and move to Florida.”
Today’s increasing number of foreclosures, large inventories of
unsold houses and the decline in housing prices in some cities
contrast starkly with the flourishing construction industry, huge
numbers of home sales and flurry of people buying homes simply to
make a quick profit that characterized the last few years, he said.
But Florida’s healthy job market and the continued movement of
retirees and foreign immigrants to the state helped bolster
population growth last year.
“Job growth has been higher in Florida than the national average,”
Smith says, adding that the largest increases in jobs during the
past year have been in leisure and hospitality services, education
and health service. “You also have to factor in Florida’s climate,
with its relatively warm winters, which continues to attract people
from the Northeast and Midwest from one year to the next.”
Although less significant than employment, retiree migration stands
to become increasingly important in the future.
“Over the next 20 years as the baby boomers reach retirement age,
the probability is high that many of them will want to move to
Florida,” Smith says.
Florida, with its large foreign-born population, also has grown
because of the increase in U.S. immigration during the past decade
because many newcomers move to places where they already have a
network of family and friends, Smith says. Typically, Florida
attracts about 8 percent or 9 percent of the nation’s immigrants in
a year.
“What is considered a slow year for population growth in Florida
would be considered a fast year for most states,” he says. “Between
1990 and 2000, no county in Florida lost population, which is
unusual considering that typically 30 (percent) to 40 percent of the
nation’s counties lose population during any particular decade.”
Flagler, the state’s most rapidly growing county, has ballooned by
88 percent since 2000, from 49,832 to 93,568; followed by Sumter,
which increased 68 percent from 53,345 to 89,771, and Osceola, up 54
percent from 172,493 to 266,123.
Contributing to Flagler’s growth is its location between
Jacksonville and Daytona Beach, which is attractive to retirees as
well as to commuters. Boosting Sumter County’s population gains are
spillover from Orlando to the southeast, as well as the booming
Villages retirement community, which covers parts of three counties.
Third-ranked Osceola County has drawn a sizeable population of
Puerto Rican immigrants in recent years.
Counties with the biggest increases in absolute numbers were Orange
County, which grew by 209,259 between 2000 and 2007, followed by
Miami-Dade with an increase of 208,513 and Hillsborough with an
increase of 193,913. Monroe was the only county in Florida to lose
population between 2000 and 2007, declining by 602.
© 2007 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Related Topics: Florida Demographics
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